Austrian election: the world of today without Hofer
The present news brief is published in the framework of Fondazione ISMU’s strategic line of research
Immigration and the future of Europe
by Pierre Georges Van Wolleghem
“Our fathers were comfortably saturated with confidence in the
unfailing and binding power of tolerance and conciliation. They
honestly believed that the divergences and the boundaries
between nations and sects would gradually melt away into a
common humanity, and that peace and security, the highest of
treasures, would be shared by all mankind.”
Stefan Zweig, The World of Yesterday, 1942
Norbert Hofer, leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), almost made it last May, losing the race 31.000 votes short[1] behind his rival Alexander Van der Bellen, of the Green Party. Whilst many Europeans sighed with contentment at the FPÖ’s defeat, the Constitutional Court was examining the irregularities of the vote and eventually cancelled the results of the second round. The first round, however, unequivocally gave precedence to Hofer with 35%.
Far from being the defeat of the FPÖ, it seems to have been a step further towards power. Migration is on the Austrian political agenda since the 1980s’, mainly pushed and politicized by the ascent of Jörg Haider’s FPÖ and, to a lesser yet significant extent, the Greens[2]. The 1999 legislative elections had broken 30 years of left-right Grand Coalition in Austria with the entry of the FPÖ in government in February 2000. But Jörg Haider had arrived second, gathering about 27% of the votes. Hofer arrived first at the first round. The elections are different, too. In 1999, those were legislative elections, more significant in the Austrian regime than presidential elections, as it is now. These elections are however vested with particular importance. They seem to be making a turn in Austrian politics[3]. But most importantly, for Europe, it is yet another instance of a turn to the far right.
Like most of his European counterparts, Marine Le Pen, Frauke Petry, Geert Wilders, to name but a few, Hofer has campaigned emphasising the perils of immigration[4]. Hofer is a man of smooth manners that carries a Glock 9mm pistol as he campaigns (Austria’s pride in weaponry), as a “natural consequence” of immigration[5], he says. But a bit like Marine Le Pen did with the National Front in France, Hofer managed to smoothen the image of his party, eschewing the pitfalls of too harsh a discourse. A day before the elections, he was given victory in the polls, by 15 percentage points more than his main opponent[6]. Even though we learnt over the past few months not to trust the polls (Brexit, Trump’s election), the elections on 4 December were worrisome.
For the first round in April, 68.5% of the voters cast their preference; only 2.1% of the ballots were invalid[7]. For the second round, invalidated soon after, the turnout was 72.8%, slightly higher than for the first one[8]. One may have thought the first round could have been a wake-up call for the second round, a bit as Le Pen’s –father- passage to the second round in France, 2002. Yet, the turnout for the second round did not prove particularly mobilising as regards previous elections (see figure 1).
Figure 1 – Voter turnout in Austria from 1998 to May 2016 (in %)
The recast election has confirmed Van der Bellen’s victory, giving Europe a respite. After the Brexit, Orban’s referendum, the Finns Party in government in Finland, the successes of the Danish People’s Party, Golden Dawn or the National Front, Europeans need a break from the anti-immigration discourse. Such a break may not last long given the next tough elections to come in the Netherlands, France, Germany, Hungary and (now we know) Italy. But for now, Austria has not fallen. Is it due to higher mobilisation of the electorate? Not really. The preliminary results given by the Ministry of the Interior before the count of postal votes shows a turnout of 64.6%[9]. It is not clear as of yet if the turnout is to change with such count; but what is sure is that it should not go over the 72.8% turnout of the invalidated second round. Is it the Gertrude effect; i.e. the testimony[10] of this 89 year-old Holocaust survivor that went viral on the web a few days before the polls? Numerous were the Austrians to watch the moving speech against Hofer and the far right but a significant effect on ballots is uncertain.
One thing is for sure, a barrier has erected in Austria against the far-right tide hitting the EU. In The World of Yesterday, Zweig talked about a tolerant, knowledgeable and prosperous Austria, about a Europe of culture and art; he also talked about a world on the edge. The elections in Austria may well have drawn Europe a step away from the fall on December the 4th, 2016… For the time being at least.
[1] See newspaper Le Monde (in French) at: http://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2016/07/01/l-election-presidentielle-autrichienne-invalidee_4961933_3210.html
[2] Kraler, A. (2011) ‘The Case of Austria’. In Zincone, G., Penninx, R., and Borkert, M. (eds) Migration Policymaking in Europe. The Dynamics of Actors and Contexts in Past and Present (IMISCOE Research), pp. 21–60.
[3] See London School of Economics at: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/05/03/a-long-goodbye-to-the-grand-coalition-austrias-presidential-election/
[4] See London School of Economics at: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/03/01/austrias-presidential-election-is-set-to-be-another-vote-dominated-by-the-issue-of-immigration/
[5] See newspaper The Telegraph at: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/who-is-norbert-hofer-and-should-europe-be-worried-about-him-beco/
[6] See newspaper Express at: http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/739332/Norbert-Hofer-Far-right-wing-Austria-politics-President-election-Green-Bellen
[7] See Austrian Ministry of the Interior at: http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/
[8] See Election Guide at: http://www.electionguide.org/countries/id/15/
[9] See Austrian Ministry of the Interior at: http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/
[10] See newspaper BBC at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38133209